I was curious to see whether there’s a likely election scenario that has the networks calling the election for Obama before the polls close in the western time zones. It seems at least possible that this will be the case; it looks like Obama can surpass 270 electoral votes with just the states he’s favored to win in the eastern and central time zones. Florida is the big question mark in this scenario since it’s got 10% of the electoral votes that Obama needs and he’s only leading there by a few percentage points today.
Created using CQ Politics scenario builder
It this scenario plays out, it will be bad news for conservative supporters of a certain California ballot initiative, since an early call for Obama in the east may keep conservative voters away from the polls in the final hours of voting in the west.
Update: Electoral-vote.com notes that polls in Virginia (real, as well as fake) close at 7PM EST (which would be 4pm on the west coast). Although that state is favoring Obama by seven points, they’re looking at that race as the canary in the coalmine for McCain (as in, if he loses there, Obama’s basically got the election in the bag).
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